Canada now has a majority Conservative government with the NDP as the official opposition. What does this all mean? The initial impulse for the political parties and the media pundits is to suggest that there is a shift in the winds of politics in Canada. Some might go so far as to suggest that Canada has become divided, polarized in its political leanings. We certainly know that the election results represent a different map of the political landscape in Ottawa. But it is all that different?
Let's look at the results. On the one hand, Canada has elected a Conservative government, suggesting that the citizenship has embraced Stephen Harper's vision of Canada. He did, after all, win a majority of seats, 167 in all. On the other hand, we have the decimation of two parties from different political philosophies. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois have been reduced to a peripheral political figure on the national and regional spaces. The Liberal Party of Canada, Canada's "natural" governing party, has also suffered significant loses. Finally, the NDP has seen a dramatic rise in its political relevance with a decisive increase in seats in the House of Commons. This doesn't tell the entire picture, though.
The Conservative government won 55% of the seats with 39.6% of the vote. The next closest rival was the NDP with 33% of the seats and 30.6% of the vote. On the other hand, the Liberal Party of Canada has 11% of the seats but with 18.9% of the vote. The BQ has 1% of the seats with 6% of the vote. Finally, the Green Party has .3% of the seats with 3.9% of the vote. In the case of the Conservative and NDP parties, they won more seats with less votes. The Liberals, BQ, and Green Party won less seats even though they had more votes. In other words, the distribution of votes does not reflect the distribution of seats. With this scenario, we have a majority government that holds less that the majority of the popular vote.
If we take this scenario through the regional context, we can see that, at best, the Conservative government maintains a majority of seats in 72% of the country. The Conservatives have a majority of the seats from BC to Ontario, and New Brunswick. In the remaining four provinces, the remain a minority. In the three territories, they captured, two-thirds of the seats.
It could be argued that, based on the comparative statistics, instead of having only 55% of the seats in the house, the Conservatives should have 72% because of their success across the regions. While this simple approach highlights the limits of the system, the Conservative Party did not win 72% of the seats of each province or region. In other words, the statistics can be manipulated however we want to examine the electoral data. At the same time, though, if we believe that one vote translates into one voice and that voice has a right to be heard in the halls of democratic institutions, it makes sense that neither of the approaches reflect the spirit of representative democracy. The system of representative democracy fails to reflect the voices of the people.
The system that best reflects the ideals of democracy and the one vote equal one voice, is proportional representation. Based on a proportional representation electoral system, the Conservative Party would receive 122 seats, far less that the 167 seats won in the first-past-the-post system. The NDP would received 94 seats while the Liberals would have won 58 seats. The BQ would have 18 seats and the Green Party would have 12 seats. In this scenario, the Parliament of Canada would look significantly different. More than this, though, no party would hold a majority. Under proportional representation, there are multiple scenarios that could be played out in the House of Commons to form the government. And isn't this what democracy is all about? Are we not supposed to ensure that the various political parties are to work together to make the system function? Having one party dominant the democratic institutions in Canada shuts out the voices of those that are either represented by the other regions or the other political perspectives.
Proportional representation might make the decision making process more conciliatory more compromising but it would be more reflective of the priorities of the different views expressed by the Canadian people through their different elected officials. This way the voices of the different regions and political philosophies have an opportunity to influence the decisions that affect everyone.
One final thought: democracy is about not only the right to participate in the process but the right to have your voice heard and heeded in the hallowed halls of the institutions that uphold the democratic ideals.
