Global Chaos

Globally, the world is changing. It's more unstable since the unknown of the collapse of the Soviet Union. This could be the final decline of the American empire. And the rise of an unknown hegemonic power. This is not a new phenomenon: The fear, especially, Austria, during and post-Napoleonic Wars, was similar. WW1 was the most recent event and it was based on challenging the hegemonic Pax-Britannia.

After WW1, there was a void. This caused chaos in the global community with a variety of results for different countries. As the 30s advanced, we see the domination of Russia and Germany. Still no single hegemonic power.WW2 would change this.

After WW2, the US realized that isolationism did not benefit the stability of markets and Western democratic capitalism was challenged by Russian European hegemony. Throughout the post-WW2 period, there was stability and a balance of dual hegemonic powers.

After the fall of Russia, the US became Pax-America. In the last 15+ years, they have been challenged by China and, to some extent, Russia. This has resulted in pressure on Allies to assume greater responsibility for the global balance in the world, especially, since the US, has seen its economic hegemony challenged.

Interestingly enough, the US wants support from Allies to balance the rise of China but not so much to challenge its economic dominance. Trump’s approach is to weaken Allies economically to improve its own economic position. Militarily, it is demanding greater investment by Allies because they want them to purchase more US high-tech weaponry. This improves the American economy. Finally, politically, the US challenging Allies political decision making is a form of dependency coercion.

In simple terms, they are pursuing political, economic, and military tactics and strategies to return to the global geo-politics that existed post-WW2. They want dominance and capitulation of nations to their "leadership" of the global community or, at least, their Allies.

Does Trump view the world and his approach through this lens? It is unclear of the Trump Administration’s approach. What appears reasonably clear is American policy process over the last several decades by the various administrations has been pursuing this approach without the brashness and blatant disregard for the current system.